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乌克兰傀儡当局的所谓“春季攻势计划”

2023-4-6 23:24| 发布者: redchina| 查看: 8376| 评论: 47|原作者: 北约内部军事简报

摘要: 这规模远远不如去年,去年乌军集中了超过20个旅啊。估计这是绝唱了。基辅政权也知道,无论是9个旅或者12个旅的预备队,都是消耗品。因此他们在决定反击方向的时候显然不会对军事问题负责,而是要继续扩大宣传效果,把反攻打成大规模人肉行为艺术展。
以下内容由蜗牛柯基微博提供:

乌克兰和北约一共准备了
九个旅——第 21、32、33、37、47、117、118 机械旅、第 46 空降旅和第 82 空突旅。其中 6 个旅应在 3 月 31 日之前准备就绪,剩下 3 个应在 4 月 30 日之前准备就绪。

9 个旅所需的武器总数为 253 辆坦克、381 辆步兵战车、480 辆装甲运兵车、147 门火炮和 571 辆装甲悍马。

基辅还在训练另外三个旅。 如果该计划切实可行并得到实施,到 5 月,乌克兰武装部队将准备好以 12 个旅的兵力对俄军发动进攻。

图片是北约流出简报,信息量非常大

图1有新组建各旅重装备配置和到货/训练情况,整个是甘特图

图2有双方参战兵力情报,包括KIA数据

图3是乌克兰战场态势图

图4有北约对乌克兰支持情况,包括空中情报和弹药消耗/供给

图5是乌克兰冻土情况

https://weibo.com/1015206261/MAHNvcv5y 点击链接看图片


井冈山卫士:

这明显是一只“一次性”的军队。现在俄军除了阿尔焦姆斯克、阿芙蒂芙卡、苏勒达尔新解放区之外,其他的解放区都有工事。而且俄军前线可用兵力已经超过了乌军。

如果情报属实,那么乌军就只能讲这些兵力集中在一个方向。

从政治上讲,再次侵占阿尔焦姆斯克最为有利。但是就算夺回来了也会很快丢掉。
从战略上讲,从扎波罗热南下再次侵占梅利托波尔,切断交通线是首选。但是俄军最重点布防的区域也在这里。
从战役上,从赫尔松前出直捣克里木半岛最“出其不意”。
稳扎稳打的话,就只能在奥斯克尔河(哈尔科夫方向)搞点文章了。

从历史经验上看,如果俄军没有补给线横跨第聂伯河的担忧,乌军需要集中八倍于俄军的兵力兵器才能在俄军的非重点布防地带打开数公里宽的战术突破口。这个条件可能在某些地段存在,但是乌军需要进一步集中同样数量的预备队才能达成有战役意义的突贯,这是基本不可能的。

不过,基辅政权也知道,无论是这只9个或者12个旅的预备队,还是自己,都是消耗品。因此他们在决定反击方向的时候显然不会对军事问题负责,而是要继续扩大宣传效果,把反攻打成大规模人肉行为艺术展。

其他评论:

水獭军一般兵:这是乌军在现有48个机械化旅基础上增加的12个全部北约化的旅,基本上实现装备西方化。不过由于巴赫穆特地区的战况,46旅已经碎在了苏勒达尔,47旅也在巴赫姆特投入了至少两个营级分队。

军武大伊万:这规模远远不如去年,去年乌军集中了超过20个旅啊。估计这是绝唱了嘛。
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井冈山卫士 2023-4-15 22:32
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-15 22:25
最后一句没看懂

精确制导武器杀伤力更强,不会让区域拒止更容易吗?

我的理解是,区域拒止是全称否定判断,只要有漏网之鱼击中重要设施和集结地就失败了。反区域拒止是特称肯定判断,只要有漏网之鱼击中关键点就成功了。反区域拒止并不意味着全面介入。

精确制导武器的精度和威力的提高会增加区域拒止的成本。即,能够造成较大杀伤需要的漏网之鱼数量在减少。
远航一号 2023-4-15 22:25
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-15 21:14
有这种可能性。最近一个时期俄罗斯部队编制的特点是继续走向小型化,即把原来的合成营战斗群进一步拆分为 ...

最后一句没看懂

精确制导武器杀伤力更强,不会让区域拒止更容易吗?
井冈山卫士 2023-4-15 21:14
本帖最后由 井冈山卫士 于 2023-4-15 21:23 编辑
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-14 04:02
怎么样,有什么感想?

是不是这种“精确打击力度”为俄乌双方的大规模集结都造成某种困难? ...

有这种可能性。最近一个时期俄罗斯部队编制的特点是继续走向小型化,即把原来的合成营战斗群进一步拆分为合成连突击分队。

精确制导武器的发展有可能让合成营下辖的步兵和坦克连规模的活动都显得过于臃肿,以至于很容易遭受严重损失,从而使整个合成营战斗群丧失突击能力。面对这种局面,有两个可能的解决方案。

一个是重归师-团机构,增加结构冗余,是部队在可以承受损失之后继续行动,以适应机动作战的快节奏。

另一个是继续拆分,在加强连的规模上实现诸兵种合成,这样一方面难以被敌人捕捉到,另一方面在遭遇损失后也可以迅速由预备队填补。这种方法更适应高强度消耗战。

现在出现了一个非常有意思的局面,就是在武器的精度和杀伤力都明显提升的情况下,未来战争的双方都想要突破消耗战,重新实现决定性的运动战。否则,除非像俄罗斯这样拥有明显兵力兵器优势和世界人民的支持,一般的资产阶级政府显然无法承受这种消耗。这个局面特别像1918年到1939年各主要大国探索未来机动作战思路的局面。

上次,即第二次世界大战解决方案的关键点1)无线电解决了机动作战中的指挥-控制-通信问题;2)摩托化炮兵和空军解决了突破时的火力集中问题;3)坦克解决了突破时的基础防护问题。因此,大规模部队的集中、机动、作战和保障的问题都被解决了,战役的主要形态从静态消耗战转变为了机动歼灭战。

近二十年间精确制导武器的普及和低成本化让上述三个方面都出现了问题,以至于不得不进一步分散来避免有生力量损失。同时,下一步转入机动作战的门槛,即把对方的精确制导武器消灭到何种程度,有可能会上升。哪怕是区域拒止/反介入,也存在一个可能越来越不利的效费比。

远航一号 2023-4-14 04:02
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-14 02:52
https://substack.com/inbox/post/112715127

链接中有这样一段俄罗斯军官的话很有意思。现代正规战争的精 ...

怎么样,有什么感想?

是不是这种“精确打击力度”为俄乌双方的大规模集结都造成某种困难?
井冈山卫士 2023-4-14 02:52
https://substack.com/inbox/post/112715127

链接中有这样一段俄罗斯军官的话很有意思。现代正规战争的精确打击让部队大规模集中出现困难,仅仅是杀伤敌方前线兵力已经不够,需要将敌方的精确打击力量削弱到相当的程度,才能为机动作战创造条件。

Peculiarities of decentralization of management and residence of personals ( 1/2 )

I have long wanted to clarify this point, because communicating with civilians, I see a misunderstanding regarding the arrangement of life, management and deployment of personnel in the combat zone.

Someone has an idea (no jokes), following the example of American militants, that there is a certain base in which cars drive back and forth, the paratroopers run at a marching pace, someone does push-ups against the background, all sweaty, some black commander walks and sends a group of guys on a combat mission - pushes a motivational speech. After that, the guys shouting "Hurrah!" get into the Urals and drive off into the sunset.

Someone has a more modest idea: there is a certain barracks where everyone sits, trains at a nearby training ground and goes on a combat mission.

In reality, everything looks something like this:

A brigade or division has about a hundred "locations" in which the minimum number of people lives - up to 30-40 in the "largest" and from 2 to 20 in standard ones.

Standard places of residence are basements, private houses, apartments, dugouts on 2-3 lines of defense, basements on 1 line.

Almost no one, except for the commanders, knows each other.

Privates (except for those who have survived since 2014) are not familiar with the remaining 99% of the unit's personnel.

Products are delivered to the main locations. The food is monotonous, but there are no problems with it.

It is not difficult to guess that everyone is scattered because of the threat of shelling by Khimari (HIMARs). If you bring together even 200 people, they will definitely fly by them.

Until now, the morons officers who, at a distance of 5-10 km from the front line, put next to several Urals with people and equipment, columns, have not been translated. Because it's so "convenient" for them and they don't understand how it can be otherwise - to arrange transport with personals and equipment at least 20-40 meters away. Until now, there are morons officers who, for the sake of convenience, are trying to crowd a company or an entire battalion in one place. You can't do that. But in the completely discredited "MOD academies" - they did not teach modern warfare. Here they can't.

What is the complexity of the location of personals ?

The rear officers (and there are no others) are used to the fact that there is a barracks where everyone sleeps in piles. They gave him this barracks - that's where it's supposed to live. These guys have not seen any other options in their lives.

Here you have a bunch of people, let's say 300 people. You arrived - where to put them? Who knows.

Those who are smarter turn to the officers of the LDNR, that is, to the local warriors, for help. Donbass is extremely saturated with bomb shelters and dual-use buildings - therefore, the best and easiest way to distribute personals is to negotiate with the owners of these premises (the majority go forward). Communicate with local residents in villages and towns - they can suggest broken-down empty buildings with good basements. Further, it is necessary to independently conduct electricity or buy a generator, gasoline and equip the economy in every possible way.

All transport must be kept under sheds, carefully camouflaged, all equipment must stand far from each other - it is wasteful to work on single targets - the enemy fires only clusters.

After arriving at the location, especially stupid rear chiefs have an idea in their heads that mobile phones, the Internet, etc. are to blame for everything - no.

Individual local residents (sympathizers with uprops) instantly report (for money) to the SBU all the latest news - including who drove in, who arrived in what quantity and where they are.

A local resident will easily come up, smoke with gullible soldiers who want to look in the best light - find out who has arrived, provide moral support and then go to write a report to the SBU. The same is done by individual servicemen who were greatly offended, or mobs, who were originally on the side of the dill.

The most important thing to understand is that the enemy knows everything. Where are all the command posts, equipment, where and when does it travel. And it's not about phones.

Therefore, the best way to protect personnel and equipment is decentralization.

Yes, management is very difficult, there is an increased need for means of communication, but it would be better for everyone to be troublesome and uncomfortable than everyone to be dead.
王导 2023-4-12 21:37
本帖最后由 王导 于 2023-4-12 21:53 编辑

西摩·赫什声称,美国军方据称正在准备起草协议,以结束乌克兰冲突。

据他称,美方正在考虑在乌克兰的利益下结束冲突的可能性,因此正在为此做准备。将在“失败的情况下”提供给俄罗斯。

https://twitter.com/northerly_/status/1646124067844689921
https://twitter.com/RT_India_news/status/1646122500995047425
井冈山卫士 2023-4-12 21:02
王导 发表于 2023-4-12 13:34
此人还瞒着约翰逊,计划一旦在越南溪山战役失利后使用战术核武器扭转局势,结果是被白宫的一些政客阻止了 ...

是的。五角大楼好歹在最近30年打过几场殖民战争,国务院(外交部)现在就是个戏班子。
王导 2023-4-12 13:34
本帖最后由 王导 于 2023-4-12 17:41 编辑
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-12 05:41
美军历史上出过类似的事。1968年就有人主动泄露了韦斯特摩兰请求增兵26万,一路从越南打进中国的记忆。 ...

此人还瞒着约翰逊,计划一旦在越南溪山战役失利后使用战术核武器扭转局势,结果是被白宫的一些政客阻止了。

现在白宫和五角大楼的情况反过来了。背后也反映了统治集团不同成分认知水平的变化。

井冈山卫士 2023-4-12 09:59
本帖最后由 井冈山卫士 于 2023-4-12 10:37 编辑
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-12 07:57
现在越来越多迹象表明此次泄密是美国统治集团某一派的主动行为,开始初步采取减小损失、寻求退路的步骤 ...

如果美国资产阶级的重大自我纠错机制需要频繁地通过这种“准政变”的方式完成,那么我们应当可以讲美国资产阶级及其政权机关已经处在一个“失能螺旋”中了。
换句话说,美国资产阶级的“整体意志”正在消失,现在美国资产阶级的行为,更像是不同集团越来越无视资产阶级政治常规而独立行事的结果。而这种独立行事往往会急剧降低资产阶级的国家能力。
远航一号 2023-4-12 07:57
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-12 05:41
美军历史上出过类似的事。1968年就有人主动泄露了韦斯特摩兰请求增兵26万,一路从越南打进中国的记忆。 ...

现在越来越多迹象表明此次泄密是美国统治集团某一派的主动行为,开始初步采取减小损失、寻求退路的步骤
井冈山卫士 2023-4-12 05:41
隐秘战线 发表于 2023-4-11 16:38
就不怕美国政府那群官僚查出是他干的以后扣顶帽子给清洗了?

美军历史上出过类似的事。1968年就有人主动泄露了韦斯特摩兰请求增兵26万,一路从越南打进中国的记忆。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 22:01
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-11 21:54
就算假设所有的装备都能运输到位,其中也只有21旅,117旅和118旅(原乡土守备旅团)有可堪一用又不至于造 ...

同时可以看出,乌军的原苏制152毫米火炮基本已经损失干净,苏制122毫米火炮也只剩下牵引火炮没有自行火炮,苏制多管火箭炮要么已经被消灭干净,要么已经被削弱到旅一级的基本战术单位无权使用的地步。

北约援助的炮兵,除了12门AS-90装备与116旅之外,剩下的全都是牵引式火炮。一旦发起进攻,在俄军拥有空天信优势的情况下最多只能在被摧毁之前完成一次效力射。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 21:54
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-11 21:47
以下是准备参与“反攻”的乌军九个旅的装备情况。

116th Brigade:

就算假设所有的装备都能运输到位,其中也只有21旅,117旅和118旅(原乡土守备旅团)有可堪一用又不至于造成后勤灾难的坦克。只有47旅,82旅和116旅(原乡土守备旅团)拥有说得过去的步兵战车。剩下的都是防雷车之类的玩意。

而且,在这九个旅里面,居然还没有把华约装备和华约装备凑在一起,北约装备和北约装备凑在一起,这种不兼容性直接决定了这九个旅就是烟花一样的一次性部队。如果真反攻,也就听个响。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 21:47
以下是准备参与“反攻”的乌军九个旅的装备情况。

116th Brigade:
90 x BMP (Polish/Czech), already delivered.
13 x T-64 (Ukrainian), on hand.
17 x Unspecified tanks, TBD.
12 x AS-90 (British 155mm howitzer), April delivery. —these are 155mm howitzers equivalent to Krab, M109, PhZ2000 etc.

47th Brigade:
99 x M2 Bradley, delivery in late March.
28 x T-55S (Slovakia), on hand.
12 x M109 (American 155mm SPG), on hand.
12 x D-30 (old Soviet towed artillery), on hand.

33th Brigade:
90 x MaxxPro (American MRAPS), 20 on hand, the rest by late March.
14 x Leopard 2A6 (German), delivery estimated in April.
4 x Leopard 2A4 (Canadian), delivery April.
14 x Leopard 2A4 (Polish), delivery March.
12 x M119 (US light 105mm old howitzer), on hand.

21st Brigade:
20 x CVRT (old British Scorpion with 76mm gun), delivery in April.
30 x Senator (Canadian IMV, equivalent to Humvee, etc., only light machine guns), on hand.
20 x Bulldog, 21 x Husky (British light APC, akin to M113), x 10 M113’s, on hand.
30 x T-64 (Ukrainian), on hand.
10 x FH70 (old Italian towed 155mm howitzer from 1960’s), on hand.

32nd Brigade:
90 x MaxxPro (American MRAP), on hand.
10 x T-72 (Netherlands), delivery by April.
20 x Unspecified tanks (wishful thinking), TBD.
12 x D-30 (old Soviet howitzers), on hand.

37th Brigade:
30 x Mastiff/Husky (British MRAP w/ light weapons), delivery in April.
30 x Mastiff/Wolf (same thing), delivery expected.
30 x Senator (Canadian IMV, equivalent to Humvee), delivery TBD.
14 x AMX-10 (French wheeled “tank” with small 105mm gun), delivery in March.
16 x Unspecified tanks (wishful thinking), TBD.
12 x D-30 (Soviet howitzers again), delivery TBD.

118th Brigade:
90 x M113’s (American Vietnam era APC tin-can), on hand.
28 x T-72 (Polish), by April.
6 x M109 (American 155mm SPG artillery), delivery in March.
8 x FH70 (old Italian towed howitzer), expected in April.
xxxx - Something unreadable but appears possibly more Senator IMV’s.

117th Brigade:
28 x Viking (Netherlands small APC), on hand.
10/20 x XA185 (Finnish APC equivalent to BTR-82a, etc.), estimated by April.
10 x Senators (Canadian Hummer), delivery TBD.
31 x PT-91 (upgraded Polish T-72’s), delivery in April.
12 x D-30 (Soviet artillery), on hand.
xxxx - Something illegible.

82nd Brigade:
90 x Strykers (American IFV), expected March.
40 x Marders (German IFV), expected April.
14 x Challenger-2 (British MBT), expected April.
24 x M119 (U.S. light towed howitzer 105mm), on hand.
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 21:24
隐秘战线 发表于 2023-4-11 16:38
就不怕美国政府那群官僚查出是他干的以后扣顶帽子给清洗了?

树大根深,他并不是一个人,而是混吃等死的军事官僚的代表。现在美国官僚机器策动战争的主力是外交和宣传部门(国务院和宣传媒体)。我们可以提出一个判断标准,一个美国官僚或者政客,如果实在1990年以后在常春藤大学获得过政治学、经济学、国际关系学、新闻传播学的学位,而且又在外交、宣传和基金会工作过,那么95%可以确定这个人的脑子非常不好使,而且沉浸在自己的幻想世界里。

美国军方虽然越来越无能,但是真正的疯狂战争贩子只有那些被直接任命的部分,剩下的官僚还是知道自己有几斤几两的。
隐秘战线 2023-4-11 16:38
井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-4-11 06:23
这9个旅只有相当于三个旅的坦克和装甲车。

本次战争中,美国资产阶级国家机器最“理性”的部分就是五角 ...

就不怕美国政府那群官僚查出是他干的以后扣顶帽子给清洗了?
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 06:50
“Okay, so what? Let Oryx run their little counting project, no harm done - right? Apparently not. The Pentagon’s leaked documents claim 6,000 assessed vehicle losses as of March 1, which lines up with Oryx’s claims (now up to 6,486 destroyed vehicles as of April 10). This is a strong data point confirming suspicions that the American Defense Department is increasingly outsourcing intelligence to OSINT (Open Source Intelligence). It is fairly clear at this point that there is an incestuous amplification between OSINT and the American defense and political establishment. When Oryx counts absurd photoshop hack jobs as destroyed Russian hardware, this becomes a meaningful data point feeding the Pentagon’s battlefield assessments.”

由于美军对乌军情报的缺失,美军有可能把情报工作外包给开源情报组织。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 06:43
这也能说明红色中国网对俄乌总实力对比变化的长期判断是正确的。

有人总会说,“战报会骗人,战线不会骗人”。说实话,这种玩即时战略游戏的思维显然无法认识到本次战争中俄罗斯于北约帝国主义集团正在进行的消耗战的本质。

在消耗战阶段,夺地仅仅是杀人和毁物的结果。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 06:39
远航一号 发表于 2023-4-11 05:55
这漫长的补给线和超快的纵深突破,而且这9个旅还没有空优,曼施坦因再世也不敢这么打吧???

平均算下来 ...

顺便说一句,在没有完全的制空权,技术兵器数量不明显超过对手的情况下,曼施坦因也打不赢。他能做的基本上就是怪罪希特勒既不让他撤下来也不给足够的增援。
井冈山卫士 2023-4-11 06:38
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ ... mp;utm_medium=email

这篇文章也很有意思,反映了美国军方对乌克兰情报两眼一抹黑的状况。

美军对乌军的情况估计居然是“在顿涅茨克方向有1万到2万乌军”这个精确度,显然这也印证了美军难以掌控仆从军的状况。同时,这也有可能反映了乌军自己也不知道自己的状况如何。打得越是激烈,部队越是损失和拆分,上级就越是难以掌握下级的状况。

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